Your Decisions, Better
Blue Sky Insights
We all want to make better decisions. In our personal lives, we want to buy the right car. In business we want to select the best site to open a new branch. We want to select the best staff to work there. We want to make sure that our well deserved holiday fulfills the promises presented in the adverts.
Along with the pressure of making the correct decision, we also have to navigate the uncertainties that characterise daily life. Thus we must not only make the best choice, but identify and manage risks associated with our decision.
What we want then is to ensure we make quality decisions.
Now not all decisions are that consequential, nor do all have any long term costs. A bad cup of coffee should not kill you. But the wrong decisions in a business could cause its collapse. Focusing your intelligence service’s attention on the wrong target can lead to deadly terror attacks.
What is Decision quality
In the making a quality decision, we seek decisions that:
Address the fundamental problem the decision maker faces.
Are consistent with stated objectives.
Have considered a wide range of alternatives and their consequences.
Have been subject to consistent and rational trade-offs.
Addresses uncertainty and are coupled with the appropriate risk management solutions.
Consider how a decision impacts on other current and future decisions.
Decision quality is a rigorous, structured process that invokes a strategic orientation in selecting the best alternative to solve problems and advance objectives while managing uncertainty and risk
Learning Outcomes
Pursuing decision quality through the use of decision analysis tools has three outcomes:
- Structured Thinking : Apply structured decision tools to replace intuitive judgements, creating a transparent decision process.
- Strategic Clarity : Make and defend strategic decisions linked aligned with long term goals, documented trade-offs and a coherent approach.
- Critical Analysis : Complex decision problems are deconstructed into core elements and assumptions and information are rigorously interrogated.
Services Offered
Blue Sky Insights offers a two part focused training programme built around proven decision analysis frameworks. Each part combines conceptual depth with practical application, ensuring participants leave with skills they can immediately use.
Training Delivery
Training can be presented on line or in person.
Duration: 12 hours online. In person training consists of two 6 hour sessions.
What’s Included:
Notes: for each training module
Presentations: the full slide deck for each module
Videos: Access to all videos used in the training
Desk References: easy references to keep at hand to promote quality decision making
Part 1: PROACT URL
The PROACT-URL offers a set of 8 questions to guide to the decision making into making a SMART decision.
Introduction: what is decision-making and why decision quality matters
Module 1 — Problem Definition
Module 2 — Setting of Objectives
Module 3 — Generation of Alternatives
Module 4 — Consequence Analysis
Module 5 — Assessing Necessary Trade-offs
Module 6 — Identifying Uncertainties
Module 7 — Implementing Risk Management
Module 8 — Identifying Linked decisions
Closing: System 1 vs System 2 thinking and key heuristics
Part 2: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis
MCDA is useful for ranking of decision alternatives. Whether it be assessing various locations to open a new branch of your store, or the ranking of terrorist organisations to determine how best to allocate resources.
MCDA — Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Introduction: What is MCDA
Module 1 — Identifying fundamental objectives
Module 2 — Alternatives and Assessing their Partial Values
Module 3 — Weighting of Fundamental Objectives
Module 4 — Calculating Weighted Performance
Module 5 — Sensitivity analysis
Closing: Real World Application of MCDA
Facilitation
Along with training in the conduct of decision analysis, Blue Sky Insights also provides a decision facilitation service. Decision analysis training is constructed around the particular decision an organisation or individual is confronted with. The decision analysis process is both guided and documented by the facilitator.
About Blue Sky Insights
Blue Sky Insights was founded in 2025 by Neil Greyling. Neil brings his 33 years experience in South African civilian intelligence to training in decision analysis. Neil spent his last decade in intelligence as an instructor, developing and delivering training in Intelligence Analysis, Decision Analysis, and forecasting.